Climate Modelling Shows Increased Risk to Eucalyptus sideroxylon on the Eastern Coast of Australia Compared to Eucalyptus albens

نویسندگان

  • Farzin Shabani
  • Lalit Kumar
  • Mohsen Ahmadi
چکیده

Aim: To identify the extent and direction of range shift of Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens in Australia by 2050 through an ensemble forecast of four species distribution models (SDMs). Each was generated using four global climate models (GCMs), under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Location: Australia. Methods: We used four SDMs of (i) generalized linear model, (ii) MaxEnt, (iii) random forest, and (iv) boosted regression tree to construct SDMs for species E. sideroxylon and E. albens under four GCMs including (a) MRI-CGCM3, (b) MIROC5, (c) HadGEM2-AO and (d) CCSM4, under two RCPs of 4.5 and 6.0. Here, the true skill statistic (TSS) index was used to assess the accuracy of each SDM. Results: Results showed that E. albens and E. sideroxylon will lose large areas of their current suitable range by 2050 and E. sideroxylon is projected to gain in eastern and southeastern Australia. Some areas were also projected to remain suitable for each species between now and 2050. Our modelling showed that E. sideroxylon will lose suitable habitat on the western side and will not gain any on the eastern side because this region is one the most heavily populated areas in the country, and the populated areas are moving westward. The predicted decrease in E. sideroxylon's distribution suggests that land managers should monitor its population closely, and evaluate whether it meets criteria for a protected legal status. Main conclusions: Both Eucalyptus sideroxylon and E. albens will be negatively affected by climate change and it is projected that E. sideroxylon will be at greater risk of losing habitat than E. albens.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Wood Machining Properties of Australian Plantation-grown Eucalypts

This study assessed the moulding, drilling, turning, sanding, and routing properties of seven plantation-grown hardwood species from southeast Australia to evaluate their potential as a resource for the manufacture of high quality furniture and furnishings. Eucalyptus grandis, Eucalyptus saligna, Corymbia maculata, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Eucalyptus sideroxylon, Eucalyptus cladocalyx, and Euc...

متن کامل

Eucalyptus Pollen Allergy and Asthma in Children: A Cross-Sectional Study in South-East Queensland, Australia

OBJECTIVES To investigate Eucalyptus (gum tree) pollen allergy in children in relation to geography, particularly vegetation, and its relationship to asthma. METHODS Males (n = 180) and females (n = 200) aged 9 to 14 participated. Some were healthy (asymptomatic), some had asthma, and some had other symptoms associated with atopy. School students were from three urban coastal schools and one ...

متن کامل

The effects of mulching on establishment of Syagrus romanzof®ana (Cham.) Becc., Washingtonia robusta H. Wendl. and Archontophoenix cunninghamiana (H. Wendl.) H. Wendl. & Drude in the landscape

Three palm species common to southern California landscapes were grown and established under mulch treatments. Turfgrass clippings and Eucalyptus sideroxylon mulches increased the growth of king and queen palms and increased survival of king palms. Although palms growing under fresh eucalyptus mulches did not display nutrient de®ciency symptoms, Mexican fan palm and queen palm were not signi®ca...

متن کامل

New species of Mycosphaerella from Myrtaceae in plantations and native forests in eastern Australia.

The majority of Mycosphaerella species from eucalypts (Eucalyptus, Corymbia and Angophora) in Australia have been recorded only from trees growing in plantations. This illustrates a bias in research in the past two decades toward commercial enterprise, and it emphasises a lack of understanding of the occurrence of these important fungi under natural conditions. Surveys of foliar fungi in native...

متن کامل

Empirical Estimates of Aboveground Carbon in Open Eucalyptus Forests of South-Eastern Australia and Its Potential Implication for National Carbon Accounting

The aboveground carbon (AGC) storage of open Eucalyptus forests is unknown yet they are estimated to account for almost 25% of all Australian forests and about 60% of forests in Victoria. In this study we provide the best possible estimates of total AGC including tree biomass derived from destructive biomass sampling across 23 study plots established in open Eucalyptus forests in Victoria. The ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره 6  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2017